The Broiler and Swine Information Early Warning System is a collaborative project of the Statistical Research and Training Center (SRTC), Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS), Department of Agriculture-Office of the Secretary (DA-OSEC) and its attached agencies. The project is implemented in stages and designed primarily to develop an appropriate methodology for a responsive early warning system for agricultural commodities. Specifically, it aims to develop and/or enhance the broiler and swine information database and its data collection methodology.
The first phase of the project focused on the development of forecasting tools and models for the production, supply and demand of broiler and swine, which are the primary components of the EWS. A further refinement to the supply model was undertaken, particularly on swine. For the broiler supply model, current production efficiencies and technology were incorporated. Also, in this study,, the development of demand model was done using secondary sources and/or results of related studies on broiler and swine forecasting reference materials. Main output for this phase is the Situation and Outlook Reports (S&O) on Broiler and Swine. Databases pertaining to this sector from member agencies and private sector were established
Phase II is a continuation of the initial activities implemented in Phase I. Further development/enhancement of forecasting tools, improvement of the data holdings and enhancement of EWS webpage were the main activities in this phase. Establishment of data holdings, improvement in the availability of quality data and accessibility between and among project core team members were conducted. It also focused on industry monitoring and improvement of the data system for broiler and swine. Another highlights of the project is the completion of EWS webpage, launched on June 27, 2008, during the meeting of the National Task Force of Price and Volume Watch at the BAI conference room. The EWS website is linked to the existing website of BAS. Thereafter, it was decided that the Situation and Outlook (S&O) publications and corresponding databases be also posted on this website. The pilot test/survey on broiler hatcheries and nucleus and multiplier farms for swine as part of industry monitoring activity was also undertaken to develop an alternative method of monitoring and forecasting broiler and swine production performance. Workshops on the Livestock and Poultry Data System of BAS and Orientation-Appreciation seminars about the project were also conducted with the DA- regional/field office counterparts. This is in preparation for the third phase of the project.
The third phase of EWS project has yet to start. In addition to what has been established for continuation and enhancement, the project is geared towards: (1) the review and update of forecast models for corn production and simulation model for cost of production (COP) and supply-value chain for broiler and swine using the results of pricing dynamics study and BAI’s Supply–Chain Analysis; (2) Replication/expansion of project’s concept and approaches in pilot regions namely: Regions III, IV-A and X; and (3) Improvement of the broiler and swine information and database and its data system at the sub-national level focusing at the pilot regions.
