Abstract

The study provided a practical exposition of Bayesian methods and recent developments in computations for more statistical modeling of data gaps in official statistics. The conceptual framework of Bayesian data analysis (vis-à-vis classical statistical analysis) is firstly discussed. Then contemporary Bayesian computing and modeling is illustrated through the use of directed acyclic graphs and the Win BUGS freeware for modeling crime statistics in the Philippines. We provide a way of disaggregating the crime statistics for the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) in the time periods before this region was formally established. The study also shows that most of the regional crime rates are on a decreasing trend.